Black Friday's Cooling System: A Data Center Meltdown?
Black Friday's Mirage: Data Center Meltdowns and Shifting Retail Realities
This morning's CME Group disruption—caused by a data center "cooling issue," according to reports—is a fitting prelude to the Black Friday data we're about to dissect. Futures trading halted, individual stocks still moving… the market equivalent of a car trying to drive on three wheels. The CME says futures indexes and options trading would open fully at 8:30 a.m. The juxtaposition of this tech hiccup with the broader retail narrative is too rich to ignore.
CME disruption, Black Friday, the K-beauty boom and more in Morning Squawk
Black Friday, once the undisputed king of in-person shopping, is facing a harsh reality check. The claim that millions still partake? Sure, but the numbers tell a different story. Online sales have consistently outpaced brick-and-mortar spending for the past six years. In-person foot traffic is mostly flat. The trend is clear. It's not about *if* people are shopping, but *where* and *how*.
Deloitte reports that the average consumer will spend $622 between November 27 and December 1, a decrease of 4% from last year. A small dip, yes, but directionally significant. AT&T's data suggests Gen Z participates most actively on Black Friday itself, while older generations shop closer to Christmas. This isn't just a shift in spending; it's a generational divergence in shopping habits. What does this imply for retailers who have traditionally relied on the Black Friday rush? Are they prepared to cater to these distinct consumer behaviors?
Alphabet's AI Lead: A Fragile Crown?
AI Arms Race: Alphabet's Lead and the K-Beauty Surge
The market's infatuation with AI continues, with Alphabet being a prime example. Shares are up more than 13% this month, and nearly 70% this year. (A significant rebound, especially considering last year's tech sector woes.) Alphabet's Ironwood TPUs and Gemini 3 AI model are generating buzz. But here's the critical question: Is this lead sustainable? Experts quoted by CNBC suggest Alphabet's advantage is "marginal" and "could be hard to hold onto." The AI landscape is a hyper-competitive arena. The claim of AI dominance should be always taken with a grain of salt.
And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling: While the tech giants battle for AI supremacy, a seemingly unrelated trend is quietly exploding. U.S. sales of "K-beauty" products are projected to surge over 37% this year, exceeding $2 billion, according to NielsenIQ. Retailers like Ulta, Sephora, Walmart, and Costco are all jumping on the bandwagon. Olive Young, the "Sephora of Seoul," is even opening its first U.S. store in Los Angeles next year. What's driving this K-beauty boom? Is it simply a fleeting trend fueled by social media, or does it represent a deeper shift in consumer preferences and values?
It's easy to dismiss the K-beauty surge as a niche market, but the numbers suggest otherwise. A 37% increase is nothing to sneeze at. (To be precise, the increase is 37% *or more*). What is the correlation of K-Beauty surge to overall cosmetic sales? Is it cannibalizing other brands, or expanding the market as a whole? It's these types of cross-sector analyses that are often overlooked, yet they provide a far more nuanced understanding of the market dynamics.
The Devil's in the Disaggregated Data
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Conclusion: Beyond the Hype
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So, what's the real story here? It's not just about Black Friday's decline or Alphabet's AI ambitions. It's about the disaggregated data points that reveal the underlying complexities of the market. The CME glitch, the generational shopping divide, the K-beauty boom – these are not isolated incidents. They're interconnected pieces of a larger puzzle. The market is not a monolithic entity; it's a collection of micro-trends, shifting consumer behaviors, and technological disruptions. And it's the analyst's job to see beyond the hype and identify the signals that truly matter.
